Saturday, April 08, 2006

Another interesting, but ambiguous, piece by Hersh (i.e. is this a 'watch out for Iran/support actions against Iran' threat-escalation piece or a 'this whole insane situation is already out of control' Bush must be impeached piece?). Iran War a viable option already? I thought it would take until this summer for this whole situation to escalate - having a war in September so as to pull Bush & Co. back up in the polls in time for Nov elections. This would seem to be an option that puts Plame, NSA, et al, on ice...freezer ice that is, not 'on the rocks'...

The New Yorker: "A government consultant with close ties to the civilian leadership in the Pentagon said that Bush was ?absolutely convinced that Iran is going to get the bomb? if it is not stopped. He said that the President believes that he must do ?what no Democrat or Republican, if elected in the future, would have the courage to do,? and ?that saving Iran is going to be his legacy.?"

The House member said that no one in the meetings ?is really objecting? to the talk of war. ?The people they?re briefing are the same ones who led the charge on Iraq. At most, questions are raised: How are you going to hit all the sites at once? How are you going to get deep enough?? (Iran is building facilities underground.) ?There?s no pressure from Congress? not to take military action, the House member added. ?The only political pressure is from the guys who want to do it.? Speaking of President Bush, the House member said, ?The most worrisome thing is that this guy has a messianic vision.?

Some operations, apparently aimed in part at intimidating Iran, are already under way. American Naval tactical aircraft, operating from carriers in the Arabian Sea, have been flying simulated nuclear-weapons delivery missions?rapid ascending maneuvers known as ?over the shoulder? bombing?since last summer, the former official said, within range of Iranian coastal radars.

The Pentagon adviser on the war on terror said that ?allowing Iran to have the bomb is not on the table. We cannot have nukes being sent downstream to a terror network. It?s just too dangerous.? He added, ?The whole internal debate is on which way to go??in terms of stopping the Iranian program. It is possible, the adviser said, that Iran will unilaterally renounce its nuclear plans?and forestall the American action. ?God may smile on us, but I don?t think so. The bottom line is that Iran cannot become a nuclear-weapons state. The problem is that the Iranians realize that only by becoming a nuclear state can they defend themselves against the U.S. Something bad is going to happen.?

1 comment:

post festum said...

I gotta tell you, today is really the first day that I've ever even contemplated a war with Iran as even a remotely real possibility. Lots and lots of posturing, sure, but nothing beyond small scale covert stuff. (Which, incidently, I could see slowly escalating the conflict over time, leaving a real mess to the next administration).

But this is Hersh's second big scoop on the plans that Bush co. have for Iran as earlier as this summer/spring. If he's getting played to increase public tension around Iran, (i.e., providing the benefits of war-fever without actually having to go to war) then he's REALLY getting played by some top generals, a few of whom are quoted in the article as saying they are set to resign over the use of the nuclear "bunker busters".

Still, I say him interviewed on the Daily Show right after his first Iran article came out (last fall maybe?), and Stewart asked him a great point blank question:

(something like)

Stewart: What are you trying to do, writing articles such as this and breaking the Abu Graib story?

Hersh: No plans are ever final. They'd certainly like to do this to Iran this summer. But they don't know if they can get away with it yet. And I'm hoping by telling everyone about it I can help to prevent them from being able to carry it off, and therefore give up the idea. In other words, I wrote this article hoping that it would be proved false.